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“好市多+迪士尼”还是“淘宝1.0”?拼多多模式的资本问号

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2018年12月17日 13:56:22
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(原)(标)(题)(:“好)(市)(多)(+迪)(士)(尼)(”还)(是)(“淘)(宝)(1.0”?拼)(多)(多)(模)(式)(的)(资)(本)(问)(号)(
新)(三)(板)(在)(线)(·2018-07-18·文)(/郭)(净)(净)(
北)(京)(时)(间)(7月)(17日)(,正)(在)(申)(请)(纳)(斯)(达)(克)(全)(球)(精)(选)(市)(场)(上)(市)(、申)(请)(证)(券)(简)(称)(为)(“PDD”的)(拼)(多)(多)(,向)(美)(国)(证)(券)(交)(易)(委)(员)(会)(提)(交)(更)(新)(后)(的)(招)(股)(说)(明)(书)(。
据)(此)(,该)(公)(司)(首)(次)(公)(开)(发)(行)(8560万)(股)(美)(国)(存)(托)(股)(票)((ADS),承)(销)(商)(的)(超)(额)(配)(售)(比)(例)(为)(1284万)(股)(ADS,估)(计)(每)(股)(美)(国)(存)(托)(凭)(证)(的)(首)(次)(公)(开)(发)(售)(价)(格)(介)(于)(16美)(元)(至)(19美)(元)(之)(间)(,公)(司)(预)(计)(募)(集)(资)(金)(额)(共)(计)(18.7亿)(美)(元)((约)(合)(人)(民)(币)(125亿)(元)()。
本)(轮)(首)(次)(公)(开)(募)(股)((IPO)后)(,拼)(多)(多)(的)(市)(值)(最)(高)(将)(超)(330亿)(美)(元)(。与)(此)(同)(时)(,公)(司)(创)(始)(人)(、董)(事)(长)(兼)(CEO黄)(峥)(将)(占)(股)(46.8%,拥)(有)(89.8%的)(投)(票)(权)((如)(果)(超)(额)(发)(售)(则)(为)(89.6%);此)(外)(,腾)(讯)(所)(占)(股)(比)(为)(17%,高)(榕)(资)(本)(所)(占)(股)(比)(为)(9.3%,红)(杉)(资)(本)(所)(占)(股)(比)(为)(6.8%。
成)(立)(不)(足)(3年)(的)(拼)(多)(多)(,被)(包)(括)(权)(威)(研)(究)(机)(构)(在)(内)(的)(市)(场)(确)(认)(为)(“中)(国)(电)(商)(第)(三)(极)(”,仅)(次)(于)(淘)(宝)(与)(京)(东)(。招)(商)(证)(券)(最)(新)(研)(报)(认)(为)(,从)(资)(本)(市)(场)(来)(看)(,拼)(多)(多)(此)(时)(的)(IPO更)(有)(一)(些)(策)(略)(性)(的)(意)(味)(。“一)(,拼)(多)(多)(线)(上)(流)(量)(趋)(紧)(,或)(将)(面)(临)(转)(型)(,需)(要)(进)(一)(步)(的)(现)(金)(流)(融)(入)(;二)(,淘)(宝)(、京)(东)(等)(巨)(头)(推)(出)(“淘)(宝)(特)(价)(版)(”App、京)(东)(拼)(购)(”等)(对)(标)(产)(品)(,或)(给)(拼)(多)(多)(未)(来)(的)(运)(营)(带)(来)(一)(丝)(阴)(云)(;三)(,一)(级)(市)(场)(资)(金)(趋)(紧)(,拼)(多)(多)(此)(时)(上)(市)(也)(在)(为)(后)(续)(资)(金)(需)(求)(做)(铺)(垫)(。”
然)(而)(,拼)(多)(多)(此)(时)(“跑)(步)(”上)(市)(,令)(市)(场)(看)(到)(了)(这)(个)(新)(兴)(平)(台)(的)(发)(展)(瓶)(颈)(和)(天)(花)(板)(。国)(金)(证)(券)(认)(为)(,接)(下)(来)(如)(何)(“去)(腾)(讯)(化)(”是)(个)(问)(题)(,“一)(直)(在)(腾)(讯)(体)(系)(内)(,再)(进)(一)(步)(长)(大)(恐)(怕)(会)(受)(到)(一)(定)(限)(制)(。如)(果)(不)(能)(顺)(利)(完)(成)(用)(户)(价)(值)(‘由)(量)(到)(质)(’的)(转)(变)(,拼)(多)(多)(天)(花)(板)(很)(快)(就)(会)(看)(到)(”。
1.新)(兴)(的)(“电)(商)(第)(三)(极)(”
2015年)(9月)(,拼)(多)(多)(是)(黄)(峥)(所)(创)(游)(戏)(公)(司)(的)(内)(部)(孵)(化)(项)(目)(。一)(年)(后)(,黄)(峥)(将)(拼)(多)(多)(与)(拼)(好)(货)(合)(并)(,组)(建)(成)(为)(目)(前)(的)(拼)(多)(多)(公)(司)(。
在)(招)(股)(说)(明)(书)(中)(,拼)(多)(多)(自)(认)(为)(是)(“一)(个)(创)(新)(且)(快)(速)(发)(展)(的)(‘新)(电)(子)(商)(务)(’平)(台)(”,为)(买)(家)(提)(供)(物)(超)(所)(值)(的)(商)(品)(以)(及)(有)(趣)(和)(互)(动)(的)(购)(物)(体)(验)(。作)(为)(被)(大)(多)(市)(场)(认)(可)(的)(“电)(商)(第)(三)(极)(”,拼)(多)(多)(最)(为)(外)(界)(所)(知)(的)(是)(“低)(价)(”、“拼)(团)(”、“家)(庭)(妇)(女)(”等)(关)(键)(词)(。
该)(公)(司)(开)(创)(了)(“团)(队)(购)(买)(”模)(式)(,鼓)(励)(消)(费)(者)(在)(微)(信)(等)(社)(交)(网)(络)(上)(分)(享)(产)(品)(信)(息)(,并)(邀)(请)(他)(们)(的)(朋)(友)(、家)(人)(和)(社)(交)(联)(系)(人)(组)(成)(购)(物)(团)(队)(,享)(受)(“团)(购)(”选)(项)(下)(更)(具)(吸)(引)(力)(的)(价)(格)(。
这)(种)(低)(价)(拼)(单)(模)(式)(激)(活)(了)(中)(低)(收)(入)(用)(户)(的)(消)(费)(需)(求)(,提)(升)(了)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(居)(民)(通)(过)(电)(商)(进)(行)(购)(物)(的)(热)(度)(。根)(据)(今)(年)(2月)(易)(观)(的)(监)(测)(,拼)(多)(多)(近)(六)(成)(用)(户)(来)(自)(三)(线)(及)(以)(下)(城)(市)(,其)(中)(70.5%为)(女)(性)(,25-35岁)(年)(龄)(段)(的)(用)(户)(占)(比)(超)(过)(57%。
借)(助)(于)(这)(种)(“购)(物)(+社)(交)(”的)(低)(价)(拼)(团)(模)(式)(,拼)(多)(多)(消)(费)(者)(基)(数)(呈)(指)(数)(级)(增)(长)(。从)(2017年)(3月)(至)(2018年)(6月)(30日)(,拼)(多)(多)(的)(活)(跃)(买)(家)(从)(0.76亿)(暴)(涨)(至)(3.44亿)(,每)(月)(活)(跃)(买)(家)(年)(度)(支)(出)(从)(308.7元)(增)(至)(762.8元)(;每)(月)(平)(均)(活)(跃)(用)(户)(数)(从)(0.15亿)(增)(至)(1.95亿)(,并)(有)(超)(过)(100万)(户)(商)(家)(。2017年)(和)(2018年)(第)(一)(季)(度)(,其)(移)(动)(平)(台)(订)(单)(总)(数)(分)(别)(达)(到)(43亿)(元)(和)(17亿)(元)(。截)(至)(2018年)(6月)(30日)(,拼)(多)(多)(一)(年)(内)(GMV达)(2621亿)(元)(。
不)(容)(忽)(视)(的)(是)(,拼)(多)(多)(短)(时)(间)(内)(为)(消)(费)(者)(熟)(知)(,强)(势)(营)(销)(功)(不)(可)(没)(。从)(数)(据)(上)(看)(,因)(为)(广)(告)(、促)(销)(等)(增)(加)(,该)(公)(司)(销)(售)(和)(营)(销)(费)(用)(从)(2016年)(的)(1.69亿)(元)(大)(幅)(增)(加)(至)(2017年)(的)(13.45亿)(元)(,而)(2018年)(第)(一)(季)(度)(已)(达)(12.17亿)(元)(。
如)(此)(高)(昂)(的)(宣)(传)(成)(本)(,是)(拼)(多)(多)(至)(今)(未)(能)(盈)(利)(的)(一)(大)(主)(因)(。财)(务)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,2016年)(、2017年)(,该)(公)(司)(实)(现)(收)(入)(5.05亿)(元)(、17.44亿)(元)(,同)(时)(分)(别)(录)(得)(净)(亏)(损)(2.92亿)(元)(、5.25亿)(元)(。2018年)(第)(一)(季)(度)(,该)(公)(司)(收)(入)(为)(13.84亿)(元)(,但)(依)(然)(亏)(损)(2.01亿)(元)(。
(图)(片)(来)(原)(:拼)(多)(多)(招)(股)(说)(明)(书)()
拼)(多)(多)(坦)(言)(,公)(司)(过)(去)(曾)(遭)(遇)(净)(亏)(损)(,未)(来)(可)(能)(会)(继)(续)(亏)(损)(,鉴)(于)(公)(司)(业)(务)(等)(持)(续)(扩)(张)(、增)(加)(技)(术)(投)(资)(及)(继)(续)(扩)(大)(买)(家)(基)(础)(等)(因)(素)(,“预)(计)(未)(来)(运)(营)(成)(本)(和)(费)(用)(将)(以)(绝)(对)(数)(量)(增)(加)(”。
“公)(司)(有)(足)(够)(的)(弹)(药)(支)(撑)(未)(来)(发)(展)(。”招)(商)(证)(券)(近)(期)(认)(为)(,虽)(然)(拼)(多)(多)(一)(直)(处)(于)(亏)(损)(状)(态)(,但)(公)(司)(经)(营)(活)(动)(产)(生)(的)(现)(金)(流)(量)(净)(额)(始)(终)(为)(正)(,截)(至)(2018第)(一)(季)(度)(的)(现)(金)(和)(现)(金)(等)(价)(物)(仍)(有)(86.34亿)(元)(。
2.“Costco+disney”?市)(场)(更)(多)(将)(拼)(多)(多)(看)(作)(“淘)(宝)(1.0”
拼)(多)(多)(认)(为)(,与)(传)(统)(的)(基)(于)(搜)(索)(的)(“库)(存)(指)(数)(”模)(型)(相)(比)(,其)(带)(来)(了)(发)(现)(和)(购)(物)(的)(乐)(趣)(和)(兴)(奋)(。或)(许)(鉴)(于)(此)(,黄)(峥)(在)(致)(股)(东)(信)(中)(将)(拼)(多)(多)(的)(未)(来)(展)(望)(成)(一)(个)(“Costco(高)(性)(价)(比)()”和)(“迪)(士)(尼)(”(强)(娱)(乐)(性)()的)(结)(合)(体)(。
对)(标)(Costco(好)(市)(多)(),还)(可)(以)(理)(解)(。同)(样)(是)(纳)(斯)(达)(克)(上)(市)(公)(司)(的)(好)(市)(多)(是)(美)(国)(最)(大)(的)(连)(锁)(会)(员)(制)(仓)(储)(量)(贩)(店)(,定)(位)(中)(产)(阶)(级)(,通)(过)(严)(选)(模)(式)(为)(消)(费)(者)(精)(选)(商)(品)(,以)(可)(能)(的)(最)(低)(价)(格)(提)(供)(给)(会)(员)(高)(品)(质)(的)(品)(牌)(商)(品)(。好)(市)(多)(凭)(借)(“低)(毛)(利)(+会)(员)(”体)(系)(,早)(在)(2009年)(就)(成)(为)(美)(国)(第)(三)(大)(、世)(界)(第)(九)(大)(零)(售)(商)(。截)(至)(目)(前)(,好)(市)(多)(市)(值)(942亿)(美)(元)(,股)(价)(高)(达)(214.85美)(元)(。
而)(迪)(士)(尼)(是)(一)(家)(毋)(庸)(置)(疑)(的)(娱)(乐)(公)(司)(。这)(家)(纽)(交)(所)(上)(市)(公)(司)(收)(入)(来)(自)(媒)(体)(网)(络)(、迪)(士)(尼)(乐)(园)(/度)(假)(村)(、影)(视)(娱)(乐)(、消)(费)(产)(品)(等)(业)(务)(。该)(公)(司)(截)(至)(2018年)(3月)(31日)(的)(营)(收)(是)(145.48亿)(美)(元)(、净)(利)(润)(为)(29.37亿)(美)(元)(。目)(前)(,迪)(士)(尼)(总)(市)(值)(1643亿)(美)(元)(,最)(新)(股)(价)(收)(报)(110.2美)(元)(。
招)(商)(证)(券)(认)(为)(,这)(体)(现)(了)(拼)(多)(多)(“去)(中)(心)(化)(”与)(强)(附)(加)(值)(的)(野)(心)(。遗)(憾)(的)(是)(,市)(场)(分)(析)(者)(目)(前)(更)(多)(将)(拼)(多)(多)(平)(台)(认)(作)(是)(初)(级)(版)(本)(的)(淘)(宝)(,将)(其)(与)(阿)(里)(进)(行)(对)(标)(。
国)(金)(证)(券)(研)(报)(认)(为)(,拼)(多)(多)(2018年)(开)(始)(全)(面)(转)(型)(为)(平)(台)(型)(企)(业)(,与)(阿)(里)(对)(标)(更)(为)(合)(适)(。“在)(以)(阿)(里)(估)(值)(水)(平)(为)(上)(限)(基)(础)(上)(,市)(场)(可)(能)(会)(对)(拼)(多)(多)(的)(估)(值)(水)(平)(进)(一)(步)(打)(折)(扣)(。”该)(机)(构)(称)(,以)(目)(前)(的)(市)(场)(格)(局)(,拼)(多)(多)(现)(时)(点)(还)(无)(法)(享)(受)(阿)(里)(的)(估)(值)(体)(系)(,“我)(们)(认)(为)(其)(GMV估)(值)(水)(平)(在)(阿)(里)(的)(40%-60%为)(较)(为)(合)(理)(的)(水)(平)(,对)(应)(估)(值)(在)(155亿)(-233亿)(美)(金)(”。
天)(风)(证)(券)(近)(期)(研)(报)(却)(指)(出)(,多)(数)(看)(好)(拼)(多)(多)(的)(观)(点)(的)(逻)(辑)(支)(点)(都)(在)(于)(现)(在)(的)(拼)(多)(多)(是)(初)(期)(的)(淘)(宝)(,但)(是)(若)(按)(照)(早)(期)(的)(淘)(宝)(潜)(力)(进)(行)(估)(值)(,则)(隐)(含)(的)(假)(设)(还)(是)(拼)(多)(多)(能)(够)(演)(化)(出)(阿)(里)(今)(天)(的)(竞)(争)(格)(局)(,这)(显)(然)(是)(较)(难)(说)(服)(投)(资)(者)(的)(。“或)(可)(参)(考)(京)(东)(及)(阿)(里)(当)(前)(的)(P/GMV中)(枢)(,并)(给)(予)(一)(定)(的)(估)(值)(溢)(价)(,即)(P/GMV约)(为)(0.3-0.4,则)(拼)(多)(多)(的)(估)(值)(落)(于)(180-240亿)(美)(金)(区)(间)(”。
3.天)(花)(板)(:“去)(腾)(讯)(化)(”的)(未)(来)(
市)(场)(对)(于)(拼)(多)(多)(进)(行)(谨)(慎)(估)(值)(的)(最)(主)(要)(担)(忧)(是)(:该)(平)(台)(未)(来)(如)(何)(“去)(腾)(讯)(化)(”?
拼)(多)(多)(的)(迅)(速)(崛)(起)(,离)(不)(开)(其)(第)(二)(大)(股)(东)(腾)(讯)(的)(支)(持)(。据)(了)(解)(,腾)(讯)(分)(别)(于)(2017年)(2月)(、6月)(和)(2018年)(3月)(三)(度)(参)(与)(拼)(多)(多)(融)(资)(。本)(次)(首)(次)(公)(开)(募)(资)(中)(,腾)(讯)(也)(表)(示)(有)(兴)(趣)(继)(续)(认)(购)(2.5亿)(美)(元)(股)(票)(。
今)(年)(2月)(,腾)(讯)(还)(正)(式)(与)(拼)(多)(多)(达)(成)(战)(略)(合)(作)(。据)(此)(,双)(方)(达)(成)(为)(期)(五)(年)(的)(战)(略)(合)(作)(框)(架)(协)(议)(,腾)(讯)(同)(意)(向)(拼)(多)(多)(提)(供)(微)(信)(钱)(包)(接)(口)(,让)(其)(利)(用)(微)(信)(钱)(包)(流)(量)(;并)(在)(支)(付)(解)(决)(方)(案)(、云)(服)(务)(和)(用)(户)(交)(互)(等)(多)(个)(领)(域)(合)(作)(,同)(时)(探)(索)(并)(寻)(求)(潜)(在)(合)(作)(机)(会)(。
对)(于)(腾)(讯)(来)(说)(,在)(拼)(多)(多)(身)(上)(,腾)(讯)(终)(于)(找)(到)(了)(突)(破)(的)(窗)(口)(,即)(“社)(交)(电)(商)(”,实)(现)(自)(身)(部)(分)(社)(交)(流)(量)(的)(变)(现)(,是)(其)(对)(抗)(阿)(里)(在)(电)(商)(领)(域)(的)(重)(要)(抓)(手)(。
但)(国)(金)(证)(券)(相)(关)(分)(析)(师)(认)(为)(,拼)(多)(多)(脱)(胎)(于)(微)(信)(号)(,爆)(发)(于)(小)(程)(序)(,可)(以)(说)(依)(赖)(腾)(讯)(和)(微)(信)(实)(现)(了)(爆)(发)(,“待)(其)(发)(展)(壮)(大)(到)(下)(一)(个)(体)(量)(后)(,是)(否)(能)(够)(‘去)(腾)(讯)(化)(’是)(个)(问)(题)(。而)(一)(直)(在)(腾)(讯)(体)(系)(内)(,拼)(多)(多)(再)(进)(一)(步)(长)(大)(恐)(怕)(会)(受)(到)(一)(定)(限)(制)(。”
同)(时)(,上)(述)(分)(析)(机)(构)(进)(一)(步)(指)(出)(,若)(不)(能)(顺)(利)(完)(成)(用)(户)(价)(值)(“由)(量)(到)(质)(”的)(转)(变)(,那)(么)(拼)(多)(多)(天)(花)(板)(很)(快)(就)(会)(看)(到)(。“这)(可)(能)(是)(拼)(多)(多)(未)(来)(最)(关)(注)(的)(问)(题)(。”招)(股)(书)(显)(示)(,拼)(多)(多)(活)(跃)(用)(户)(的)(增)(幅)(已)(经)(从)(去)(年)(9月)(底)(的)(58%跌)(至)(2018年)(3月)(底)(的)(不)(足)(21%。
(图)(片)(来)(源)(:招)(商)(证)(券)(于)(2018年)(7月)(9日)(公)(布)(《零)(售)(行)(业)(深)(度)(报)(告)(:无)(限)(风)(光)(,还)(是)(危)(机)(四)(伏)(?-拼)(多)(多)(十)(问)(十)(答)(》)
需)(要)(关)(注)(的)(是)(,目)(前)(拼)(多)(多)(还)(面)(临)(假)(货)(等)(问)(题)(。据)(电)(子)(商)(务)(研)(究)(中)(心)(发)(布)(的)(2017年)(度)(综)(合)(零)(售)(电)(商)(满)(意)(度)(排)(行)(榜)(,拼)(多)(多)(投)(诉)(比)(是)(14.6%,仅)(次)(于)(淘)(宝)(/天)(猫)(。而)(2018年)(6月)(8日)(全)(国)(“扫)(黄)(打)(非)(”办)(公)(室)(对)(拼)(多)(多)(调)(查)(发)(现)(平)(台)(上)(存)(在)(涉)(黄)(、涉)(暴)(力)(且)(涉)(违)(法)(的)(商)(品)(,也)(引)(起)(消)(费)(者)(担)(忧)(。
招)(商)(证)(券)(国)(际)(近)(期)(表)(示)(,短)(期)(来)(看)(,拼)(多)(多)(不)(会)(对)(阿)(里)(、京)(东)(等)(造)(成)(实)(质)(性)(影)(响)(。
本)(文)(出)(品)(:新)(三)(板)(在)(线)(。作)(者)(:郭)(净)(净)(。
转)(载)(声)(明)(:本)(文)(为)(新)(三)(板)(在)(线)(原)(创)(文)(章)(,转)(载)(请)(注)(明)(出)(处)(及)(作)(者)(,否)(则)(为)(侵)(权)(。
风)(险)(提)(示)(:新)(三)(板)(在)(线)(呈)(现)(的)(所)(有)(信)(息)(仅)(作)(为)(投)(资)(参)(考)(,不)(构)(成)(投)(资)(建)(议)(,一)(切)(投)(资)(操)(作)(信)(息)(不)(能)(作)(为)(投)(资)(依)(据)(。投)(资)(有)(风)(险)(,入)(市)(需)(谨)(慎)(!返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(责)(任)(编)(辑)(:
声)(明)(:该)(文)(观)(点)(仅)(代)(表)(作)(者)(本)(人)(,搜)(狐)(号)(系)(信)(息)(发)(布)(平)(台)(,搜)(狐)(仅)(提)(供)(信)(息)(存)(储)(空)(间)(服)(务)(。
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